War and Deindustrialisation

The political economy of peace and conflict in the 21st century

I recently interviewed Philip Pilkington, a macroeconomist and researcher presently based in Central Europe. Philip has authored a number of thought-provoking reports on issues related to multipolarity, de-industrialisation (and re-industrialisation) and the political economy of warfare.

In particular, this interview focuses on two reports and a recent short article:

1. Reindustrialization in the Age of Fragmentation

2. Military Alliances and Economic Capacity

3. Has private equity become a Ponzi scheme?

The core propositions are (a) that the western economies face many long hard years of effort to re-industrialise, and that success in doing so would require a fundamental rebalancing of the prevailing political economies that favour finance, insurance and real estate sectors, and (b) on most measures, the NATO countries are poorly equipped in raw materials to stage a sustained war with the BRICS+ nations. The point of this latter comparison is mainly to remind people that there are fundamental realities that condition, constrain and enable conflicts to be waged.

Indeed, in light of these two key propositions, there are strong grounds to believe that the collective west would be much better off focusing on how to secure peace (rather than intensify talk of war). The challenges of rebalancing are exemplified in the unfolding bubble that is contemporary private equity, leading to Philip to wonder whether or not modern western economies are entering another Minsky Moment.

Please enjoy the interview and share.