Go to this Fox News page and scroll the whole way down: President Donald Trump tells the world that his meeting with President Xi Jinping yielded a lot of very concrete political and economic results - of course, only where the Chinese side, according to him, agreed with him.
He does not mention the Taiwan issue, but Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, says that it did not feature prominently in their talks and that the US policy on Taiwan has not changed.
Then go to China Daily - or Global Times - and you will see that for the Chinese it is framework, principles, structure of cooperation etc. that matters - all embedded in the overall idea of “constructive bilateral relationship of strategic stability.” Nowhere is any concrete agreement or deal - all that Trump refers to - mentioned.
At the general level, this gives you insights into the very different social cosmology - or ways of thinking - the two operate with.
Here is what China Daily reports concerning the Taiwan Issue:
“During the talks, Xi urged the US to handle the Taiwan question with extra caution, saying that it is the most important issue in China-US relations.
He emphasized that if handled properly, the bilateral relationship will enjoy overall stability. Otherwise, the two countries will have clashes and even conflicts, putting the entire relationship in great jeopardy, he said.
Noting that “Taiwan independence” and cross-Strait peace are as irreconcilable as fire and water, Xi said that safeguarding peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait is the greatest common denominator between China and the US.”
That tells how important the One China policy is for China, including US non-involvement in Taiwan, as promised in the Chou Enlai/Nixon Statement of 1972 that the US has systematically ignored.
In these few words, we find a warning as clear as it gets. Given this discrepancy between Rubio and the Chinese report, it should be clear that Trump’s list of ‘fantastic’ concrete results in the political and economic spheres is little, or likely nothing, but bravado about his own perceived achievement.
President Xi’s reference to the Thucydides Trap - that refers to the idea that when a rising power threatens to displace an established one, the result is often war - was another implicit statement of China’s view of itself and the United States. Trump’s comment is that he only referred to the Joe Biden administration but not to his own fantastic administration.
And here is a very telling example of just how different the Chinese official side presents what transpired - “Chinese FM responds to whether China, US leaders talk about Iran during exchanges on views on major international and regional issues, including Middle East situation.” Again, framework and principles, not one of the things Trump states that he achieved - such as help with solving the Iran issue, keeping the Hormuz Strait free, not supporting Iran militarily and a Chinese agreement that Iran shall never be allowed to acquire nuclear weapons.
In summary, it remains to see the next three years whether this was more than a threatre performance. On thing is sure - Trump did not understand the Chinese way of thinking and violated all diplomatic common sense by stating all his achievements that the Chinese side do not mention - probably because there were no such concrete agreements and deals made.
Trump can then continue his erratic policies - and the EU/NATO West its fundamentally ignorant and negative attitudes to China - and later say that he is doing this and that because the Chinese did not stick to all the agreements and deals that he thinks he achieved.
Finally, take a look at this clip!
It has gone viral as an illustration of Chinese state etiquette. It could well express that China is unmoved by the US’s confrontational policies and coming close - to Taiwan, for instance - and that it will keep doing things the Chinese way.
Trump - who also did not understand that you have to give something to get something - doesn’t seem to understand the place he went to and the people he met.
The Chinese probably breathed a sigh of relief as his plane took off.
I’d be surprised is these three days signal a fundamental improvement of China-US relations. And the Chinese have - to paraphrase Trump - all the cards.
And the time too.
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“China has all the cards” collapses once you bring energy logistics into the picture. China may have industrial depth, patience, diplomatic coherence and leverage over many supply chains, but its manufacturing power still rests on vast imported energy flows. Those flows move through maritime spaces where the U.S. and its partners still have enormous military, insurance, financial, sanctions and logistical influence.
The U.S. still has disproportionate influence over the coordination environment that allows energy, shipping, finance and insurance to move globally. I am not suggesting that the U.S. can simply “turn off” China’s energy supply without serious consequences, but China’s continued rise is still exposed to chokepoint pressure in systems where the U.S. remains highly influential.
You seem to mistake diplomatic composure for strategic dominance. China does appear calmer because it thinks in longer time horizons, but calm is not the same as holding all the cards. Energy remains the hard substrate beneath manufacturing power, and the U.S. still has major leverage over the global systems that move, insure, finance and secure that energy.
The U.S. is not omnipotent and China is not weak. But the balance of leverage is more complex than the title suggests.
The problem China has is that the US policy can be characterised as being little rational and highly self-destructive. However, these self destructive behaviours do harm others. One only has to look at the lives lost in Palestine, or Venezuela, or Iran, or the global economy in tatters from the US attack on, and piracy of, global energy supplies, to see that.
In that sense China does not have all the cards. It can do the right things passively and still get harmed, even if not harmed exstentially.
One suspects that China will need to shift from passive and tactical judo, to proactive moves, to defang Uncle Sam, in order to experience any further peace and stability.